Europe Longterm Weather Forecast by Sakis Arnaoutoglou - Thessaloniki, Greece
Analogue model -European Long Range Forecast for the period of :
High pressure should remain over the UK through the beginning of the period, much of western and northern Europe remaining largely dry and fine with some good spells of pleasant sunshine and mostly light winds. Some localised frost and mist or patchy fog forming overnight but this soon dispersing through the morning. However, this large high pressure is expected to decline away by the end of the period allowing a low pressure system developing to the north-west of Europe which is expected to push cloudier and wetter conditions east through much of UK and Scandinavia.
Western Europe: High pressure influence through western Europe may be eroded late in the period as low pressure attempts to push Atlantic rain in to France and Iberia.
The Balkans: Low pressure should be controlling the pattern over the eastern Balkans moving slowly eastwards though and gradually weakening across all areas. Showers can be expected, these will be thundery and heavy in places and as winds begin to ease they will become slow moving. There should be some sunny breaks between the showery outbreaks and these spells of sunshine should become lengthier as the period progresses, low pressure weakening and pressure beginning to rise once more all over the Balkans.
5/5 - 10/5
Two High pressure systems look set to be controlling the whole of this period , one across the majority of south-western Europe and the other much of Scandinavia. High pressure influence through central and south Europe as well as the Balkans is very likely to be eroded late in the period as low pressure attempts to push Mediterranean rain in those areas.
10/5 - 15/5 Western Europe: If the analogue forecast patterns prove to be reliable, then a ridge of high pressure building into south-western Britain should give much of western Europe mostly dry weather with variable mounts of cloud, some good sunny spells and only a scattering of showers across northern and eastern areas.
Northern Europe: A Low pressure will be close to the west of Scandinavia, so western and northern areas will be rather windy and cool with bands of heavy rain and showers. Southern areas of Scandinavia will still be rather unsettled too, although there is a greater chance of seeing drier and sunnier interludes from mid-period when a rise in pressure is anticipated.
Southern Europe & the Balkans: A short high pressure system over central, and eastern Europe is expected to decline away by the end of the period allowing a low pressure system developing first to central Europe and later to western Balkans and central Mediterranean.